The 50 EMA is above the 200 EMA indicating the classic Golden Cross, which gives us a bullish outlook.

At this moment, Bitcoin has bounced off the 50 EMA, crossed the short-term 21 EMA to the upside and now it is retesting this level.

This is also the level of the 0.23% Fibonacci retracement, taken from the start of the bullish run back on the 21 of July 2021 (as seen in the chart above).

We can also see how the price of Bitcoin tested the 0.38% Fibonacci retracement on the 7th and the 13th of September.

As the sentiment is generally bullish, it is reasonable to expect that the price will move up. It seems Bitcoin is destined to revisit it’s all time high.

There are many notable analysts and investment managers who recently announced that in their opinion the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000 at the end of 2021.

Could that be true?

I really don’t know, but watching closely the rise of Solana for the last couple of weeks, I think anything is possible in the crypto world.

Let me know what you think.

As mentioned in earlier analysis, this looks like an accumulation range. It is that price area where many institutions entered the market, being somewhat influenced by the decisions and tweets of Elon Musk.

This accumulation range has now been active for almost two months and it is likely break these Support / Resistance levels very soon. Some speculate that the price will go further south well below $28,000.

Personally, I think the price will shoot up, break the upper resistance level and reach around $45,000 before a bullish pullback to the $40,000 zone. Here is why.

If we measure the Fibonacci retracement levels of the strong bearish momentum from $60,000 to $29,000 we can see that the 50% of that momentum hovers around $45,000.

If the momentum is stronger, the price might even go up to $48,000 which is at the 0.618 Fibonacci level.

However, I think it is more likely that when the Resistance level is broken at around $41,000 (upper blue line) the price will go to around $45,000 than retrace back to the resistance which will become support and then reach the $48,000 with the following bull run.

But for now, all we can do is wait until the current trading range gets broken to the upside. A daily close at $42,500 would confirm the breakout.

The 1-Hour chart shows great promise of a bullish momentum which can signal a possible reawakening of a sleepy giant. The price action has crossed the 200 MA to the upside, pulled back and shot up with a big bullish candle. The volume is also quite high.

We can see that the 21 MA crossed the 200 MA and it also looks like the 50 MA will soon cross the 200 MA to the upside as well. These are all good signs of a bullish trend being formed, at least in the short term.

For a confirmation of a longer and more sustainable bullish trend, we need to wait until the price crosses $42,500. Although it may seem like a big price increase, in terms of historical Bitcoin volatility it’s not that much.

The above analysis is only an opinion. The price could fall on some negative news and the temporary bearish momentum could be extended.

One thing is a given, this week should be very interesting for Bitcoin traders.

At the time of writing this analysis, BTC is testing again it’s major support level between $29,000 and $30,000. As mentioned in the previous analysis this is a very strong support level which will be tough to break by the bears.

This particular support level coincides not only with Support/Resistance trendlines on a Daily and Weekly charts, but also with the strong 0.618 Fibonacci level, as seen in the chart above.

In addition, there was large institutional entry into the market at that level, so it will be fiercely defended by investors with a lot of capital. They will be inclined to stock up more Bitcoin at those levels, possibly pushing the price higher.

Here is a Weekly chart of BTCUSD showing the main area of strong support. We can see that the $30,000 area had a very bullish momentum in the beginning of the year. We are now back to those accumulation levels.

Even though this may seem like a good set up to short Bitcoin, as many traders expect the price to go much lower, it’s advised to wait until this this Support level is actually broken and confirmed by a closed candle.

Apparently for some chart analysts this has already happened, yet here when we use Exponential Moving Averages (which officially should be used) we can see that the Death Cross has not happened yet. The red line (50 MA) has still not crossed below the black line (200 MA).

Whether it crosses it or not, does not really matter as these are lagging indicators and dynamic price action can change everything substantially.

Let’s take a closer look at the Bitcoin price action here on the daily chart.

On the 15th we can see that it tested the 200 MA once again and it got rejected by the sellers, who will defend this level until they run out of steam. The price went south in the following 4 days which is marked by the bearish candles on the chart.

The price reached near $33,500 and at this level the bulls started to push the market a bit higher forming a bullish Pinbar candle with a long wick. The price will likely go higher until it tests the 200 MA level again. Notice the consecutive 5 bearish days, which has not happened many times for Bitcoin so expect to see a few green bullish candles in the upcoming days.

Personally, I think that the doom scenarios proposed by some traders where they see the price of Bitcoin fall below $30,000 with bears pushing it all the way to $20,000 quite unrealistic.

Of course, everything is possible, but this type of aggressive bearish push would really go against the institutional investors who entered the market near $30,000. They are unlikely to let his happen and are much more likely to buy more Bitcoin near the same level as when they entered.

Having said that, a quick dip below $30,000 is still possible but it is unlikely that the price would remain below that level for a long time and that Bitcoin would enter a bear market.

Given the aftermath of Covid, rising inflation and the increasing supply of the US dollar, Bitcoin is very likely to hold its value for the medium and long term investor.

On the other hand, if the daily candle closes above the 200 MA, it might send a bullish signal to the upside and increase bullish momentum. Moreover, if the daily candle closes above the 200 and the 50 MA represented by the red line, it would send a very strong bullish signal.

For the time being, however, it is still uncertain whether this level can be definitely broken. As seen on the chart, the 200 MA level is now being tested for the third time after the extremely bearish drop in price on the 19th of May when the 200 MA was broken to the downside.

This is most likely the main reason for the sudden price increase and the bullish momentum.

Some attribute the price increase to new tweets by Elon Musk that Tesla will resume to accept Bitcoin, as soon as mining becomes greener. Although this may be viewed as slightly more positive news than a broken Bitcoin heart emoji he posted recently, it did not have the power to move the market by 10%.

Too many Twitter and Reddit followers think that Elon Musk has the power to move the Bitcoin market. Sure, officially accepting Bitcoin by Tesla is bullish news for Bitcoin but some random personal tweets do not add or subtract anything of major importance.

The image above shows the Daily chart of BTCUSD. The price hovers below the 200 Moving Average. The black line shows the 50 MA which is getting closer to the 200 MA and many traders are anticipating the upcoming Death Cross.

The Death Cross happens when the 50 MA crosses below the 200 MA on a Daily chart. Usually this type of cross indicates the beginning of a bearish market, but of course this is not always true.

If the Bitcoin price crossed above the 200 MA and the 50 MA on the Daily chart, it would completely change the momentum to very bullish. This is also possible, especially if more countries announce that they are looking to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, as did El Salvador recently.

Let’s have a look at the Weekly chart of BTCUSD with the same Moving Averages of 21, 50, and 200.

The Weekly chart shows a different view. Here we can see that Bitcoin is consolidating right above the 50 Moving Average and it has not crossed it yet. The 200 MA is still far below the actual Bitcoin price leaving it somewhat exposed to the possible lows of $15,000. On the Weekly chart there is currently no suggestion of the 50 MA crossing below the 200 MA.

This Bitcoin price analysis looks at long term outlook, hence the use of Daily and Weekly charts.

Unfortunately, many good people have lost a lot of money. Some have lost their entire life savings betting on it all on Bitcoin and hitting stop losses or simply cashing it all out to save at least a little bit before Christmas.

The financial markets are very unforgiving.

the reality is is that those who  are still holding on to their Bitcoin investments are quite confused about how it all played out and dropped so low.

Should they hold longer, wait it out, and hope that Bitcoin will rise again or sell it all before the price drops completely to zero, as claimed by Nouriel Roubini in this article.

It could be argued that the ground-breaking implications of blockchain technology of which Bitcoin is the main representative, will affect our industries and governments so deeply that its value should be sky high.

Yet the markets are governed by many other forces than just a mere future potential.

What the markets are still searching for is a much greater acceptance of Bitcoin by users and regulatory bodies that can help to push this forward. The question is, however, do they want to? And the answer is probably not so much.

Bitcoin and its technology signals an end to the Status Quo and this challenge will always be met with great resistance by the powers that rule until it can be harnessed to their own advantage.

So looking at the price of Bitcoin today, we still don´t know  who will take over in the end, the Bears or the Bulls.

Let´s look at the Daily chart of BTCUSD. It clearly points to the dominance of a bear market. The 200 Moving Average, which has been a very good indicator of determining trends in the past across all asset classes is way above the price action. This indicates a strong bearish market.

Now let´t take a look at the Weekly chart of BTCUSD as it paints a slightly different picture. Here the price levels have still not broken below the 200 Moving Average line and Bitcoin remains in the bullish territory.

If the Bitcoin price breaks this 200 MA level it will signal a possible bear market that may last for months.

It´s important to understand that everything that happens on the weekly chart reflects a long term view.

Most media outlets and analysis focuses on 1-Hour or 4-Hour charts which is more for short term traders or investors.

Long term investors look at trends using weekly or even monthly charts.

On the weekly chart this drop in price seems like a very healthy and, what some technical analysts call, a much needed correction to the 200 MA level.

From June of 2011 to November 2011 the price of BTCUSD  crashed from $32 to $2, that is 94% loss. The most recent Bitcoin crash is about 80%. 

Be that as it may, it´s difficult to say definitely that this drop is over and that Bitcoin will hold near $3000. It might be forced down even lower. Time will tell soon.

There were many factors that contributed to Bitcoin’s major fall, but putting all of that aside, one could argue that this is a healthy pullback that is a common occurrence in financial markets. Yes, even corrections of 80% are quite common.

Bitcoin is not dead, as some may claim. It will stick around, despite that there may be other cryptocurrencies that seem better suited for the crypto revolution than Bitcoin, for example Ethereum (now trading near $500).

So why has Bitcoin not fallen completely and is now recovering. Could we possibly have another bull run on the horizon?

BTCUSD tested it’s bottom and the bears could only push the price down as far as $6,000 before bulls taking charge again.

Everyone has to pay their taxes, no exceptions

There were numerous suggestions by analysts that Bitcoin traders and investors were liquidating some of their positions to cover their tax bills.

In the USA, the final tax date in 2018 is April 17.

Analysts suggest that the price of Bitcoin might start going up past this date, as other investors with capital will try to enter the market when prices are lower.

Bitcoin is now permissible under Sharia Law

Another development that pushed the BTCUSD prices higher from their extreme lows was a publication by an important Islamic scholar which indicated that Bitcoin is permissible under Sharia Law. The publication was a study on whether Bitcoin is Halah or Haram.

This announcement opened up Bitcoin investments to near 1.6 billion Muslims.

Bitcoin price moved $1000 higher soon after the publication was released. Many analysts attributed this sudden spike in price to Bitcoin’s confirmed Sharia Law compliance.

Bitcoin ETFs could get the green light

Also last week, it was revealed that the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) is now reconsidering it’s initial position and wants to change its rules to allow Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) to be listed on NY exchanges.

Once the rule change is in place and is favourable, it could have a huge ripple effect that could push the price of Bitcoin to $25,000 by the end of this year, as some Bitcoin analysts have claimed earlier this year.

Overall the underlying long trendline still shows Bitcoin to be trending up, which is a very positive sign, given the overly bearish stance of common folks and traders who follow the news.

And what is the news?

Well, for starters Bitcoin has come onto the political scene with the likes of Donald Trump, Theresa May (UK Prime Minister), and many other government and bank representatives claiming, almost all at once, that it needs to be regulated and controlled because it is used by criminals who utilize for illegal activities.

What they mean is that Bitcoin needs to be heavily taxed and controlled because too many people are getting rich without the governments being able to track and enforce 20-50% cut for their military spending and other selfish expenses, that they claim is for the common good.

And what is the truth?

The truth is that fiat currencies have been used for illegal activities since inception. The US dollar is the most manipulated currency of all and it has been used and it is still being used for illegal activities all over the world.

To learn more about this subject refer to Max Keiser’s blog.

My point is that any fiat currency can be used for illegal activities. If you buy something privately and pay in cash without registering the purchase, that is regarded as an illegal activity according by governments in most parts of the world. But does that make you a criminal?

Bitcoin is actually quite transparent as every transaction is written into the blockchain permanently and owners’ addresses can be traced quite easily online by anyone with an Internet connection.

There are many other cryptocurrencies that are completely anonymous, meaning that nobody can trace the owners or what they have purchased.

So I ask you this? Why would any serious criminal use Bitcoins if there are other cryptos which are more anonymous, cheaper in transaction fees and much faster in execution? Still more importantly, they remain under the radar. 

So to bash Bitcoin as the currency for criminals is simply scare mongering of the common folks not to trust, buy and use Bitcoins.

Most people rely on the news to build their view of the world that surrounds them. If you hear such strong opposition by the world leaders you play safe and follow their advice.

When you hear their strong words, you immediately think that if you buy and use Bitcoins that will automatically make you a criminal in the eyes of the government.

However the main question remains why are the governments and banks are so keen on bashing Bitcoin and not focus on the cryptos that really do facilitate illegal activities.

The answer, I believe, is quite simple and it’s made of few parts.

1. Bitcoin’s blockchain is the biggest of all and it poses an immediate threat to their entire establishment and their control of the money flow (control of the people and their earnings and spending).

2. They simply don’t have the know-how, nor the facilities to halt the use and control the other fully anonymous crypto currencies

3. They are afraid of the new Bitcoin millionaires and their libertarian ideas they bring into the new world infrastructure that can function without the control of banks and ‘their governments’

4. They hope, and rightfully so, that by crashing the price of Bitcoin, other crypto currencies will follow, which would be a huge blow to this entire crypto community

However, Bitcoin is handling the resistance of the banks and governments quite well.

Yes, it has dropped in value from its heights of $20,000 but it is still much higher than a $100 or $1,000, when it was already claimed a bubble by most experts and bank representatives.

It seems that Futures trading has had quite an impact on Bitcoin as well and for the present time the BTCUSD price remains within the $10,000 – $14,000 range.

Once the price of Bitcoin breaks from that range, either down or up, it will be a defining moment.

Note. This post is for educational and entertainment use only and it is not an invitation to trade. Trading involves high risk to your capital.

A confirmed break from these lines of confluence can indicate a longer trend for Bitcoin.

Coupled with earlier analysis of head-and-shoulders pattern, one could assume that BTCUSD will succumb to bearish pressure and go lower.

There are other issues with Bitcoin, such as increasing transaction costs (currently completely unusable for any micropayments), network congestion, and disagreements as to further development, which seem to have a negative impact on the price.

On the other hand, Bitcoin future contracts will soon expire and overall, ‘the experiment’ has been semi-successful, but good enough to be accepted by Wall Street.

Note. This post is for educational and entertainment use only and it is not an invitation to trade. Trading involves high risk to your capital.