These last couple of days have been quite bearish for BTC/USD. Many analysts have been extremely outspoken about the death cross (situation when 50 Moving Average crosses below the 200 Moving Average)
Apparently for some chart analysts this has already happened, yet here when we use Exponential Moving Averages (which officially should be used) we can see that the Death Cross has not happened yet. The red line (50 MA) has still not crossed below the black line (200 MA).
Whether it crosses it or not, does not really matter as these are lagging indicators and dynamic price action can change everything substantially.
Let’s take a closer look at the Bitcoin price action here on the daily chart.
On the 15th we can see that it tested the 200 MA once again and it got rejected by the sellers, who will defend this level until they run out of steam. The price went south in the following 4 days which is marked by the bearish candles on the chart.
The price reached near $33,500 and at this level the bulls started to push the market a bit higher forming a bullish Pinbar candle with a long wick. The price will likely go higher until it tests the 200 MA level again. Notice the consecutive 5 bearish days, which has not happened many times for Bitcoin so expect to see a few green bullish candles in the upcoming days.
Personally, I think that the doom scenarios proposed by some traders where they see the price of Bitcoin fall below $30,000 with bears pushing it all the way to $20,000 quite unrealistic.
Of course, everything is possible, but this type of aggressive bearish push would really go against the institutional investors who entered the market near $30,000. They are unlikely to let his happen and are much more likely to buy more Bitcoin near the same level as when they entered.
Having said that, a quick dip below $30,000 is still possible but it is unlikely that the price would remain below that level for a long time and that Bitcoin would enter a bear market.
Given the aftermath of Covid, rising inflation and the increasing supply of the US dollar, Bitcoin is very likely to hold its value for the medium and long term investor.