As mentioned in earlier analysis, this looks like an accumulation range. It is that price area where many institutions entered the market, being somewhat influenced by the decisions and tweets of Elon Musk.

This accumulation range has now been active for almost two months and it is likely break these Support / Resistance levels very soon. Some speculate that the price will go further south well below $28,000.

Personally, I think the price will shoot up, break the upper resistance level and reach around $45,000 before a bullish pullback to the $40,000 zone. Here is why.

If we measure the Fibonacci retracement levels of the strong bearish momentum from $60,000 to $29,000 we can see that the 50% of that momentum hovers around $45,000.

If the momentum is stronger, the price might even go up to $48,000 which is at the 0.618 Fibonacci level.

However, I think it is more likely that when the Resistance level is broken at around $41,000 (upper blue line) the price will go to around $45,000 than retrace back to the resistance which will become support and then reach the $48,000 with the following bull run.

But for now, all we can do is wait until the current trading range gets broken to the upside. A daily close at $42,500 would confirm the breakout.

The 1-Hour chart shows great promise of a bullish momentum which can signal a possible reawakening of a sleepy giant. The price action has crossed the 200 MA to the upside, pulled back and shot up with a big bullish candle. The volume is also quite high.

We can see that the 21 MA crossed the 200 MA and it also looks like the 50 MA will soon cross the 200 MA to the upside as well. These are all good signs of a bullish trend being formed, at least in the short term.

For a confirmation of a longer and more sustainable bullish trend, we need to wait until the price crosses $42,500. Although it may seem like a big price increase, in terms of historical Bitcoin volatility it’s not that much.

The above analysis is only an opinion. The price could fall on some negative news and the temporary bearish momentum could be extended.

One thing is a given, this week should be very interesting for Bitcoin traders.

Apparently for some chart analysts this has already happened, yet here when we use Exponential Moving Averages (which officially should be used) we can see that the Death Cross has not happened yet. The red line (50 MA) has still not crossed below the black line (200 MA).

Whether it crosses it or not, does not really matter as these are lagging indicators and dynamic price action can change everything substantially.

Let’s take a closer look at the Bitcoin price action here on the daily chart.

On the 15th we can see that it tested the 200 MA once again and it got rejected by the sellers, who will defend this level until they run out of steam. The price went south in the following 4 days which is marked by the bearish candles on the chart.

The price reached near $33,500 and at this level the bulls started to push the market a bit higher forming a bullish Pinbar candle with a long wick. The price will likely go higher until it tests the 200 MA level again. Notice the consecutive 5 bearish days, which has not happened many times for Bitcoin so expect to see a few green bullish candles in the upcoming days.

Personally, I think that the doom scenarios proposed by some traders where they see the price of Bitcoin fall below $30,000 with bears pushing it all the way to $20,000 quite unrealistic.

Of course, everything is possible, but this type of aggressive bearish push would really go against the institutional investors who entered the market near $30,000. They are unlikely to let his happen and are much more likely to buy more Bitcoin near the same level as when they entered.

Having said that, a quick dip below $30,000 is still possible but it is unlikely that the price would remain below that level for a long time and that Bitcoin would enter a bear market.

Given the aftermath of Covid, rising inflation and the increasing supply of the US dollar, Bitcoin is very likely to hold its value for the medium and long term investor.

On the other hand, if the daily candle closes above the 200 MA, it might send a bullish signal to the upside and increase bullish momentum. Moreover, if the daily candle closes above the 200 and the 50 MA represented by the red line, it would send a very strong bullish signal.

For the time being, however, it is still uncertain whether this level can be definitely broken. As seen on the chart, the 200 MA level is now being tested for the third time after the extremely bearish drop in price on the 19th of May when the 200 MA was broken to the downside.