As mentioned in earlier analysis, this looks like an accumulation range. It is that price area where many institutions entered the market, being somewhat influenced by the decisions and tweets of Elon Musk.

This accumulation range has now been active for almost two months and it is likely break these Support / Resistance levels very soon. Some speculate that the price will go further south well below $28,000.

Personally, I think the price will shoot up, break the upper resistance level and reach around $45,000 before a bullish pullback to the $40,000 zone. Here is why.

If we measure the Fibonacci retracement levels of the strong bearish momentum from $60,000 to $29,000 we can see that the 50% of that momentum hovers around $45,000.

If the momentum is stronger, the price might even go up to $48,000 which is at the 0.618 Fibonacci level.

However, I think it is more likely that when the Resistance level is broken at around $41,000 (upper blue line) the price will go to around $45,000 than retrace back to the resistance which will become support and then reach the $48,000 with the following bull run.

But for now, all we can do is wait until the current trading range gets broken to the upside. A daily close at $42,500 would confirm the breakout.

The 1-Hour chart shows great promise of a bullish momentum which can signal a possible reawakening of a sleepy giant. The price action has crossed the 200 MA to the upside, pulled back and shot up with a big bullish candle. The volume is also quite high.

We can see that the 21 MA crossed the 200 MA and it also looks like the 50 MA will soon cross the 200 MA to the upside as well. These are all good signs of a bullish trend being formed, at least in the short term.

For a confirmation of a longer and more sustainable bullish trend, we need to wait until the price crosses $42,500. Although it may seem like a big price increase, in terms of historical Bitcoin volatility it’s not that much.

The above analysis is only an opinion. The price could fall on some negative news and the temporary bearish momentum could be extended.

One thing is a given, this week should be very interesting for Bitcoin traders.

This is most likely the main reason for the sudden price increase and the bullish momentum.

Some attribute the price increase to new tweets by Elon Musk that Tesla will resume to accept Bitcoin, as soon as mining becomes greener. Although this may be viewed as slightly more positive news than a broken Bitcoin heart emoji he posted recently, it did not have the power to move the market by 10%.

Too many Twitter and Reddit followers think that Elon Musk has the power to move the Bitcoin market. Sure, officially accepting Bitcoin by Tesla is bullish news for Bitcoin but some random personal tweets do not add or subtract anything of major importance.

The image above shows the Daily chart of BTCUSD. The price hovers below the 200 Moving Average. The black line shows the 50 MA which is getting closer to the 200 MA and many traders are anticipating the upcoming Death Cross.

The Death Cross happens when the 50 MA crosses below the 200 MA on a Daily chart. Usually this type of cross indicates the beginning of a bearish market, but of course this is not always true.

If the Bitcoin price crossed above the 200 MA and the 50 MA on the Daily chart, it would completely change the momentum to very bullish. This is also possible, especially if more countries announce that they are looking to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, as did El Salvador recently.

Let’s have a look at the Weekly chart of BTCUSD with the same Moving Averages of 21, 50, and 200.

The Weekly chart shows a different view. Here we can see that Bitcoin is consolidating right above the 50 Moving Average and it has not crossed it yet. The 200 MA is still far below the actual Bitcoin price leaving it somewhat exposed to the possible lows of $15,000. On the Weekly chart there is currently no suggestion of the 50 MA crossing below the 200 MA.

This Bitcoin price analysis looks at long term outlook, hence the use of Daily and Weekly charts.